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Holiday Fun: Actuary Edition

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December 27, 2018 | Barbara Baksa

Holiday Fun: Actuary Edition

Since it is a holiday week, I thought I'd take a break from serious blog entry topics and bring back my series in which I demonstrate how my favorite stock compensation words and phrases can be used in casual conversation, all with a holiday theme.

For this edition, I am using actuarial words and phrases. Here’s what I’ve got:
  • Regression analysis: I have performed a regression analysis using a historically representative sample of holiday lighting outcomes and have determined that there is a near 100% probability of at least one light strand shorting out before the season is over.
  • Standard deviation: Avoid cooking baking disasters by ensuring that each cookie is no larger or smaller than one standard deviation of the mean. This will result in cookies of a uniform size that bake evenly.
  • Monte Carlo: I wish I were spending the holiday in Monte Carlo, instead of with my in-laws.
  • Volatility: The snowfall index experiences a lot of year-over-year volatility.
  • Mean reversion tendency: No matter how good your intentions, conversations with relatives have a strong mean reversion tendency and are likely to end on the same note they did last year.
And for the win:
  • Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic: When valuing past gifting inputs for purposes of estimating future gifting outputs, most people use a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic approach. Thus, be warned: the gifts you receive next year are likely to approximate the value of the gifts you gave this year.

Even More Holiday Fun

Check out my past entries in the series:

I hope you all are having a wonderful holiday season and have a great new year! I'll be back next Thursday with a serious blog entry.

- Barbara

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